UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Tapalogy votes Kopylov vs Fluffy 63 vs 38. Math ain’t mathing here. Lol

Tapology getting that overround profit.

@Sangresss 

mark my word. Remember me saying this. Tafa will lose this fight. And the fight will most likely go over 2 rounds. Tafa is a fun fighter, but people are just giving waaaaaayyy too much credit for him knocking out pure cans. Like he is new Usman or something. And ignore Lima’s fight history. Focusing on his last KO loss too much. Find it kinda odd that 70% taking Tafa, but the line is sure not indicating that enough. Lima still a comfortable favorite based on ML.

* Edited at 02.15.2024, 3:32 PM ET *

Was really iffy on Bobby knuckles and ultimately I’m going with costa considering he’s such an underdog, pressure fighter, no usada so who knows what costa been up to aswell. Robert Whittaker’s biggest weakness in middleweight is his physicality or lack there of compared to guys like DDP, and costa 

UFC 298 Fight Card Predictions Overview 

1. Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria (Featherweight Championship) 

Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski 

Win Method: Decision 

Confidence: 60% confidence in Volkanovski's victory. This score reflects Volkanovski's proven track record at the championship level and ability to adapt his game plan to different opponents. However, Topuria's undefeated record and finishing ability make him a live underdog in this matchup. 

Matchup Breakdown: This fight is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, with Volkanovski's high-volume striking and movement against Topuria's grappling and submission game. Volkanovski's experience in championship rounds and ability to defend against takedowns will be crucial. Topuria will need to manage distance effectively and look for opportunities to bring the fight to the ground. Stamina and fight IQ will play significant roles, especially in the championship rounds. 

2. Robert Whittaker vs. Paulo Costa 

Prediction: Robert Whittaker 

Win Method: Decision 

Confidence: 60% confidence in Whittaker's victory. This prediction takes into account Whittaker's proven track record against high-level competition and his ability to execute game plans effectively. Costa's power makes him dangerous at any moment, but Whittaker's experience in five-round fights and his technical striking give him the edge in a decision scenario. 

Matchup Breakdown: Whittaker's ability to fight at range, combined with his footwork and speed, should allow him to navigate Costa's power and land counters. Costa will likely seek to close the distance and land power shots, but Whittaker's defensive skills and counter-striking will be critical. The fight could hinge on Whittaker's ability to absorb Costa's best shots and continue to outmaneuver him over five rounds. 

3. Geoff Neal vs. Ian Garry 

Prediction: Ian Garry 

Win Method: Decision 

Confidence: 65% confidence in Ian Garry's victory. This score reflects Garry's impressive striking statistics and undefeated record, suggesting he has the tools to manage and outperform Neal in various aspects of the fight. However, Neal's knockout power and experience in the UFC should not be underestimated, making him capable of securing a victory if he can effectively close the distance and land significant strikes. 

Matchup Breakdown: Garry's striking volume and accuracy, coupled with his height and reach advantage, are likely to allow him to control the pace and distance of the fight. Neal's best chance lies in leveraging his power to create finishing opportunities. Garry's ability to maintain distance and land effective strikes could see him outpoint Neal over the distance, despite Neal's potential to change the fight's course with his power. 

4. Merab Dvalishvili vs. Henry Cejudo 

Prediction: Henry Cejudo 

Win Method: Decision 

Confidence: 55% confidence in Cejudo's victory. This score reflects the competitive nature of the matchup, with Cejudo's Olympic wrestling background, striking proficiency, and championship experience slightly tipping the scales in his favor. However, Dvalishvili's relentless pace and durability make him a formidable opponent, capable of pulling off an upset. 

Matchup Breakdown: Cejudo's Olympic-level wrestling should neutralize much of Dvalishvili's takedown game, forcing a stand-up battle where Cejudo's superior striking accuracy and power could give him the edge. Dvalishvili's best chance lies in maintaining a high pace and using volume to outwork Cejudo, but Cejudo's defensive skills and counter-striking will be crucial in a fight likely to go the distance. 

5. Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov 

Prediction: Anthony Hernandez 

Win Method: Submission 

Round of Stoppage: Round 2 

Confidence: 60% confidence in Hernandez's victory. This prediction takes into account Hernandez's proven grappling ability against Kopylov's striking prowess and exceptional takedown defense. The fight could sway in Kopylov's favor if he manages to keep it standing, but Hernandez's ground game and submission threat give him the edge in this matchup. 

Matchup Breakdown: Hernandez's aggressive grappling and high submission rate suggest he will look to take the fight to the ground early. Kopylov's impressive knockout power and strike defense indicate he will attempt to keep the fight standing and look for a finish. However, Hernandez's ability to execute takedowns and control opponents on the ground, combined with his high submission average, likely gives him the tools needed to secure a submission victory. 

6. Amanda Lemos vs. Mackenzie Dern 

Prediction: Mackenzie Dern 

Win Method: Submission 

Round of Stoppage: Round 3 

Confidence: 60% confidence in Dern's victory. This prediction considers Dern's elite grappling ability and submission threat, which are likely to overcome Lemos's striking advantage as the fight progresses, particularly if Dern can close the distance and initiate grappling exchanges. 

Matchup Breakdown: The early rounds may see Lemos using her striking to keep the fight standing, capitalizing on her power and accuracy. However, Dern's persistence in attempting takedowns could eventually pay off, especially as fighters tire and defense wanes. Considering Dern's high submission average and Lemos's moderate takedown defense, Dern is likely to find an opening by the mid-to-late rounds, securing a submission once the fight hits the ground. 

7. Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Justin Tafa 

Prediction: Marcos Rogerio de Lima 

Win Method: TKO/KO 

Round of Stoppage: Round 2 

Confidence: 55% confidence in de Lima's victory. This prediction considers de Lima's broader skill set and experience, but acknowledges the inherent unpredictability in heavyweight bouts, especially with a striker like Tafa who has the power to end the fight with a single punch. 

Matchup Breakdown: De Lima's more well-rounded game might allow him to mix in takedowns or grappling threats to open up his striking against Tafa. While Tafa's striking power is formidable, de Lima's experience and slightly better defensive metrics suggest he may be able to navigate Tafa's offense and find openings for his own strikes, leading to a stoppage in the middle round. 

8. Rinya Nakamura vs. Carlos Vera 

Prediction: Rinya Nakamura 

Win Method: TKO/KO 

Round of Stoppage: Round 1 

Confidence: 70% confidence in Nakamura's victory. This prediction is based on Nakamura's demonstrated ability to finish fights both standing and on the ground, making him a formidable opponent for Vera, whose assumed strengths might not be enough to overcome Nakamura's versatility and defensive capabilities. 

Matchup Breakdown: Nakamura's ability to control both the stand-up and ground game, coupled with his high finishing rate, suggests he could impose his will early in the fight. Assuming Vera's primary strength lies in his grappling, Nakamura's superior takedown defense and striking might allow him to keep the fight standing and find a finish with his powerful and accurate strikes. 

9. Zhang Mingyang vs. Brendson Ribeiro 

Prediction: Zhang Mingyang 

Win Method: TKO/KO 

Round of Stoppage: Round 3 

Confidence: 55% confidence in Zhang's victory. This matchup is closely contested, with both fighters possessing the tools to secure a finish. Zhang's slight statistical advantages in striking metrics offer a marginal edge, but Ribeiro's reach and comparable finishing ability mean the fight could easily swing in his favor under the right circumstances. 

Matchup Breakdown: The fight is likely to be contested primarily on the feet, given both fighters' preference for striking and their identical takedown averages and defenses of 0. Zhang's higher SLpM and strike accuracy suggest he could impose his will in striking exchanges, but he must navigate the reach advantage of Ribeiro carefully. The predicted stoppage in the later rounds considers the durability and finishing ability of both fighters, with Zhang potentially finding the necessary openings to secure a TKO/KO as the fight progresses. 

10. Josh Quinlan vs. Danny Barlow 

Prediction: Danny Barlow 

Win Method: TKO/KO 

Round of Stoppage: Round 2 

Confidence: 65% confidence in Barlow's victory. This prediction takes into account Barlow's striking advantage, reach, and the statistical gap in striking defense, suggesting Barlow has the tools to dominate the stand-up exchanges and secure a finish. 

Matchup Breakdown: The fight is likely to start with Barlow using his reach and striking volume to control the pace and distance. Quinlan may attempt to close the distance and look for takedowns, but Barlow's striking defense and volume suggest he'll be able to keep the fight standing and land significant strikes. Assuming Barlow can maintain his high output and accuracy, he's predicted to find a TKO/KO finish in the second round as he accumulates damage on Quinlan. 

11. Oban Elliott vs. Val Woodburn 

Prediction: Oban Elliott 

Win Method: Submission 

Round of Stoppage: Round 2 

Confidence: 65% confidence in Elliott's victory. This confidence level accounts for Elliott's demonstrated ability to fight effectively in multiple dimensions and Woodburn's striking power but notable defensive concerns, making Elliott the more versatile and adaptable fighter in this matchup. 

Matchup Breakdown: Elliott's strategy will likely involve using his striking to set up takedowns, exploiting Woodburn's defensive gaps on the ground. Given Woodburn's high SApM and low strike defense, Elliott could find success with both stand-up exchanges and ground control. The prediction for a submission victory considers Elliott's submission win percentage and Woodburn's potential lack of a ground game, suggesting that once Elliott secures a takedown, he could find a finish on the mat. 

12. Andrea Lee vs. Miranda Maverick 

Prediction: Miranda Maverick 

Win Method: Decision 

Confidence: 60% confidence in Maverick's victory. This score reflects the close nature of the matchup but leans towards Maverick due to her grappling edge and Lee's recent record indicating potential vulnerabilities that Maverick can exploit. This summary encapsulates the predicted outcomes based on the analysis of each fighter's strengths, weaknesses, and historical performance data provided. Each prediction is made with consideration of the fighters' styles, statistical advantages, and potential game-changing factors within the matchups. 

Matchup Breakdown: The fight is likely to be contested both on the feet and on the ground, with Lee looking to maintain distance and leverage her striking, while Maverick seeks takedowns to control the fight and score points through ground control and submission attempts. Given Maverick's aggressive grappling and Lee's susceptibility to being out grappled, Maverick could edge out a decision victory by controlling the pace and position of the fight. 

Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov
When the fight is against a good striker and a good wrestler ( I know hermandez is not just a wrestler but wrestling will most likely be his gameplan) IMO it's always better to pick the wrestler just because they have more success in this era of MMA and they also have the threat of the takedown to mix things up and help their striking.

Having said that I will stay with my Kopylov pick just because I really want this super entertaining guy to keep winning fights using slick striking and delivering fun KOs all over the place. I choose to belive that Roman improved his TDD and will be able to handle Hermandez pressure and pace. 

Just watched Ilia's interview with DC and it's refreshing seeing him in a new light. I don't think he's this arrogant ******* that he seems when in the moment in the spotlight. He's a surprisingly well-spoken guy who chooses to be positive about the future and puts in the work to be where he is today. 

I shared some of the below information in a different thread that now has relevance to this card. I was diving into some comments Max Griffin made recently about Sal D'Amato (because his fight with Wells was a split). I went through all 10 pages of my Tapology events (back to summer 2021) and looked at every main event that resulted in a split decision or a split draw. Sal D'Amato was a judge on every single one of these main events.

1.Strickland vs. DDP
2. Albazi vs. KKF
3.Vieira vs. Holm
4. Emmett vs. Kattar
5. Sandhagen vs. Vera
6.Cannonier vs. Strickland
7.***Ankalaev vs. Blachwoicz (split draw where D'Amato was the only one who scored it a draw)
8. Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot
9.Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw

I found this to be more coincidental than anything and found myself agreeing with almost all of the scorecards from D'Amato attached to these fights. However, you may notice 5 of these fights are bolded. Those fights also had Derek Cleary as a judge.I found it interesting that in all 5 of these fights, Cleary and D'Amato disagreed regarding the result every single time.

I'm re-sharing in this thread because D'Amato and Cleary are listed as judges as for the main event.The cherry on top is the third judge is Ron McCarthy, so this is the same crew we had for Dolidze and Imavov.You know, the fight everyone saw and thought was a clear unanimous decision win for Imavov butsomehowended up a majority decision because McCarthy called the fight a draw.

Take this information and do what you please with it. 

Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Alexander Volkanovski, DEC
Don’t sleep on Volk. No evidence that he’s washed whatsoever. However, unlike Yair I don’t think Ilia folds and gets finished.

Whittaker vs. Costa
Robert Whittaker, DEC
As long as he’s on it, Whittaker should dance around Costa like he did Vettori

Neal vs. Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry, DEC
Garry mixes it up better than Neal, not sure he gets the finish though.

Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo
Merab Dvalishvili, DEC
Cejudo gonna retire again

Hernandez vs. Kopylov
Anthony Hernandez, DEC
Hernandez probably uses his wrestling and grinds out the decision. Rooting for Roman still

Ron McCarthy and Sal d’amato are two of the judges for the main event this weekend

I saw MMA Orbit tweet that the third judge was Cleary, but please correct me if I have that wrong.

Let’s all be thankful Marc Goddard will not be involved in the main event 

Classic Marc Goddard behaviour is letting two early prelims fighters go to war giving each other CTE for 15 minutes, but then prematurely stopping a Main event title fights 

Still can’t choose the Main event… ngl it’s pretty rough 💀

Volk just came to the press conference in the "Is volk too old?" Wardrobe lmao

Old man Volk is gonna spank Sloppy Toppy lmao

Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Alexander Volkanovski, DEC
if Topuria doesn't finish in the first 2 I see Volk taking the decision

Whittaker vs. Costa
Robert Whittaker, DEC
Whittaker must dance around and get the decision here

Neal vs. Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry, DEC
Garry knows how to keep the distance and Geoff is a tough feller, if Garry isn't affected mentally by all the drama surrounding him he should perform here.

Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo
Merab Dvalishvili, DEC
Post-Retirement Cejudo is a bum, I hope I am really wrong though

Hernandez vs. Kopylov
Roman Kopylov, TKO, R3
Kopylov is a very defensive minded fighter, Hernandez will have to open up to gain respect to even get a chance at getting the fight to the ground.

Lemos vs. Dern
Amanda Lemos, TKO, R3
Dern has never looked good even in her wins, Lemos via KO somewhere later in the fight when Dern loses the gas tank due to getting hit too much

Rogério de Lima vs. Tafa
Justin Tafa, TKO, R2
Tafa starting off the night for the aussies with some crazyness, UFC wants this to be a proper heavyweight KO I just feel it.

Nakamura vs. Vera
Rinya Nakamura, TKO, R2
time to build up the hype for this japanese feller

Zhang vs. Ribeiro
Brendson Ribeiro, TKO, R2
Ribeiro has actually had decent competition and following the trends Zhang seems to lose everytime the opponent is not of chinese origin.

Quinlan vs. Barlow
Danny Barlow, TKO, R2
Barlow better not miss too much or Quinlan will be able to make a comeback in this fight.

Woodburn vs. Elliott
Oban Elliott, DEC
Woodburn better turn up and make this a proper fight.

Lee vs. Maverick
Miranda Maverick, DEC
Maverick by grappling, or she weirdly fumbles this one again.

One of the better press conferences in a while

Volk and Merab are lowkey funny, pretty underrated 

* Edited at 02.15.2024, 8:31 PM ET *

Def one of the best press conferences OAT, or maybe it’s just the best in a while and I’m so used to most the fighters bringing the, “we will bring you a show” & “we’ll see Saturday night” regurgitated vibe.