UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

any confirmation about Ian pulling out aside from Chael?

got leon at -130 over a week ago. 

@Kniferusty 

now Garry’s out, you shouldn’t have jinxed it bro 

Now that media day no show from Garry makes perfect sense. Along with the weird "hes got every intention of attending the press conference" 

huh??

Edwards vs. Covington
Leon Edwards, TKO, R4
All over Rocky here. Colby stylistically has a great matchup, his path is obvious which is pace and wrestling. That being said he hasn't fought in 2 years and he hasn't fought the continued level of competition that Leon has. Leon has been active and winning for years and is looking to be at the peak of his game rn. Can we say the same about Colby? Leon will have extreme success on the feet here, he is took sharp, technical, and quick for Colby to deal with. And his defensive wrestling has only kept improving over his past few fights. I think Colby 100% wins some rounds via cardio and chain wrestling but Leon will stack on the damage and eventually find a later finish here

Pantoja vs. Royval II
Alexandre Pantoja, SUB, R2
Love Panto here, we saw how this fight went two years ago and I don't see much changing. Imo Royval's chance is to catch Panto with some crazy sub or knee or something like that, he is very dangerous in that sense. But Pantoja's chin is iron, his striking is very servicable, and he might be the best in the world at taking the back. He'll take it in this one and sink in the choke.

Rakhmonov vs. Thompson
Shavkat Rakhmonov, SUB, R2
So ******* excited for this fight. We know what both of these guys bring to the table, and I honestly have a weird feeling Wonderboy might find a way but my logic tells me Shavkat all the way here. It will be a tough fight for Shavkat standing, especially on the outside, but his grappling is elite and will take over when he can close the distance. Although Wonderboy hasn't been subbed I think Shavkat is a different animal and will take his back and finish the fight. Another interesting piece is that Wonderboy has been training for almost 8 months now not knowing when his next fight would be after the Pereira pull out, did he overtrain himself or will he look as sharp as ever...

Ferguson vs. Pimblett
Paddy Pimblett, DEC
Tony man... I pray he can just land a heavy shot and find a knockout somehow bc I think it's his only way to win. Power is definitely still there but honestly as hittable as he is Paddy's chin has been very good. He sorta just walks through the fire. I think he'll have success wrestling here but really don't see a finish.

Luque vs. Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry, TKO, R2
The scenes if Vicente chins Garry would be phenomenal, but I sadly don't see it. Luque is very solid everywhere and has soo much experience, but I think Garry's speed and movement win him the fight here. I think he keeps this one at range and counter punches for the most part and even though Luque has been practically unfinishable I think he finds the chin via a slick counter and finishes Luque. TKO.

Emmett vs. Mitchell
Bryce Mitchell, SUB, R2
Razor close one here, as a betting man I would definitely have an Emmet slip here because this seems closer to PK for me. Emmet's obviously path to winning is knocking Bryce's head off his shoulders here, which is very possible, and Emmet has pretty solid wrestling. But I still think Bryce gets him down and mauls him from top. Emmet is very strong and compact but he has been taken down when people have shot on him, I rate Bryce's grappling very highly and think he finds his success through that. Have to remember that Emmet was also preparing for a polar opposite fight with Giga before he pulled out.

Aldana vs. Rosa
Irene Aldana, DEC
Not sure why the tapology pick spread is so large here, honestly have been contemplating taking Rosa here after watching Aldana have literally zero output in her fight vs Amanda but at the end of the day Rosa's strength of schedule does not impress me and I don't see her having much of a path to victory. Rosa is durable though so I would be surprised to see her get finished.

Garbrandt vs. Kelleher
Cody Garbrandt, TKO, R2
I think this is a nice fight for Cody and Kelleher is the tailor made opponent for him. No quit in Kelleher and will always keep the pressure but I think Garbrandt will be far quicker, will be able to negate Kelleher's wrestling, and will find the chin. If Cody doesn't win this it's time to have the conversation.

O'Neill vs. Lipski
Casey O'Neill, DEC
O'Neill has fought tougher competition in my opinion and will have the strength advantage. See her winning a decision here.

Menifield vs. Jacoby
Dustin Jacoby, TKO, R1
I like Jacoby here, Menifield is a monstrous human and has nuclear power in his hands but I think Jacoby's movement and precision will give Alonzo problems here. Jacoby is calculated and powerful and I think he will quickly accumulate damage on Menifield and eventually finish him. Menifield could obviously chin Jacoby or even have success making the fight dirtier in the clinch but I like this Jacoby spot

Ulanbekov vs. Durden
Tagir Ulanbekov, DEC
Another interesting fight I'm looking forward to, I'm a fan of Durden and he has been on a really solid run as of recent. That being said I think this is a tough matchup for Durden, I see him doing the most of the offensive wrestling and Tagir has very good takedown defense and ground game in general. Tagir is going to stuff Cody's takedowns and will have the advantage on the feet, I see him taking this by decision with a possible submission if Cody leaves his neck out when shooting

Fili vs. Almeida
Andre Fili, DEC
Really tough one here, Fili throws very loopy but it is actually effective where Almeida has power and throws everything pretty straight. Fili should wrestle here if he wants to have his easiest path to winning and I'm siding with him doing that but Almeida is a live dog at +155

Gaziev vs. Buday
Shamil Gaziev, TKO, R2
This is an interesting one, Gaziev is a solid hw prospect and has finishing ability everywhere but gassing out in the later rounds could be an issue. Buday on the otherhand is more experienced, can fight for 3 rounds, but has little finishing ability an honestly just fights a bit labored. Could see Gaziev getting fraud checked and outworked in the later rounds but going to side with him to get a gnp ko here. I think he has success wrestling and the power discrepancy will show.

Brown vs. Salikhov
Randy Brown, DEC
Salikhov will not be able to JDM his way inside against Brown and will get peppered at ranged, Rudeboy keeps this one at distance and takes a decision

Emmett TKO R3
What happens when Bryce can’t hold or even get Emmett down? Emmett is no topuria but he has good TDD, cracking overhands n is stronger n shorter. Bryce sure as hell ain’t hitting a double leg on a 5’5 Emmett. Single leg? Trips? I doubt it. Emmett knows what to expect. The blueprint to beat Bryce is out. Defend TDs n ******* PUNCH HIM IN THE FACE. I respect Bryce as a man but he loses this one. Decision or KO, it don’t matter. Bryce at -200 is nuts. Emmett literally just has to box Bryce n he’ll win. Bryce’s striking is almost a mirror of Ryan Hall’s. Don’t get me started. Bryce’s whole game plan is to maybe get lucky with a front kick, distract you a bit with pillow fists then shoot for a single leg. Stuff a couple of those n you got a gassed, sloppy striker who knows he needs the TD. Remember Rosas Jr. - Crod?? Once Bryce gasses, it’s a wrap. 

Covington TKO R4
HEAR ME OUT! So Leon is actually one of my fav fighters n I was gonna bet him before based off emotion n bias, BUT I stopped thinking with my cawk. I rewatched Edwards - Usman 3. What stands out the most is the difference between Colby’s pressure n wrestling compared to Usman’s. Usman is very flat footed n just walks you forward to the fence. He relies heavy on the fence but Colby doesn’t, Colby isn’t flat footed. Colby will blitz in for singles etc. my point is that Leon was just able to use lateral movement n leg kicks to keep usman at bay for a lot of the fight. I don’t think he can do that with Colby. I think a big difference is that Colby will shoot off a caught kick etc n fast. I don’t think Edwards is ready for the speed of the TDs n timing. He’s obviously trained for a wrestler but I think there’s a big difference between Colby n usman wrestling. I think once Colby gets Edwards’s down, he’ll absolutely maul on him with GnP. I think an Edwards high kick is literally not gonna happen. I think at best Edwards snipes Colby coming in with a 2, but unfortunately I see Colby destroying my boy. I’m rooting for Leon but I can’t bet on him. GL thinking Leon can win a Dec. I highly doubt it especially with the politics of judging if it goes the distance. But Colby also said he wanted to finish him so we’ll see. 

@Bling Bling Boy 

I am picking Colby but he didn't do anything to Usman with his wrestling so his wrestling is not better. Usman dominated Leon for 4 rounds in the 2nd fight easily.
The third fight played out that way for many reasons but specifically 2 reasons for me - 
1. In a lot of crucial moments Leon used dark arts. Grabbing gloves, low blows, grabbing cage, all of those things stopped Usman from getting good positions after he timed his initial attacks well.
2. Head kick threat. A shot like that is something you don't want to eat again, so Usman was a lot more passive and tried to defend better, he could see Leon was just waiting for him to charge and counter him with a kick.
But in this fight, Colby also uses dark arts so it will be interesting.

@Calfoth 

lol damn ya got me

I wouldn’t be surprise if Garry still fighting and Chael talking ****???

No other sources has said Garry isn’t fighting 

Garry is out. He has pneumonia per dana

@DamienHandel420 

wouldn't be the first time but than again if it's true UFC probably instructed Garry not to say anything while they are figuring it out while Chael is being Chael. 

guess Thug Nasty is being bumped to the main card

LOL

@expertanalyst Im not saying Colby did anything to Usman with his wrestling, that literally doesn’t matter. The point is that Colby is a lot faster fighter than usman, pace, striking n wrestling. All faster. He has more volume, shoots faster, n is LIGHT 
on his feet. Will make all the difference this Saturday. 

The trajectory of Garry this year has been wild

Time for belal to put that money where his mouth is and step up for a fight 

Holland is asking for the fight