UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Korean Zombie

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

  Waldo vs Brzeski  Waldo KO RD 3 
No idea why this is the featured prelim, who cares about these two. This is also one of the more low level fights on this card. Brezski is not & has never been ufc level. His dwcs was just plain awful. He fought a bloated lhw, struggled to finish him, potter never even really taped, and to top it all off, brzeski popped for steroids after yet somehow got the contract. Brzeski did show up and actually looke decent in his debut which was strange. I mean, buday sucks but brzeski managed to avoid the grappling and outpointed buday for thre rounds. While he did lose the fight, he really shouldve won. I thought he pretty clearly won on volume but it was a little close since it was the volume of brzeski vs the power shots of buday. However, this is really the only notable performance brezski has had. Brzeski does throw a good amount of kicks and attacks all parts of the body, but thats where the good qualities end. For starters, he has no defense. Brzeski has his hands super low at all times & has bad reactions to getting hit all the time. This erases a lot of work he does because he always looks really bad every time he takes a punch. The next quality he has is the wrestling. Like all heavyweights, brzeski has no wrestling to speak of. Finally, his cardio is among the worst ive seen. Like clockwork, brzeski death gasses after about 2 minutes literalyl every fight. He will fight through it but he is so visibly exhausted after every round 1. Then we have waldo. Waldo is weird because he actually has a lot of good qualities compared to other heavyweights & could end up being ranked. The issue, is that he has no idea how to actually fight & wins due to these good qualities. Waldo is a pretty big heavyweight, athletic, has a boxing background, toughness, and really good cardio. These alone are enough to bring him to right outside the top 15. Whats annoying about waldo is his very low fight iq. Granted, Waldo has only been doing mma full time for like 1.5-2 years but still his fight iq is atrocious. He doesnt know how to grapple, he doesnt know what a leg kick is, he just doesnt understand a lot of nuances in mma in general. Despite this, he has been able to win so amny fights because of his output and cardio. Even the de lima fight ended up ebing close because waldo put it on him late. Waldos output is actually quite impressive; he has multiple rounds in the up where he has landed 50+ shots. I think this alone is more than enough to beat brzeski. Brzeski may have more tools in the arsenal but, waldo is never gonna slow down and put out a ton of volume, which will drown brzeski & I see him getting koed late. 


Armfield vs Kazama  Armfield KO RD 2
This is a really tricky one to call. Armfield is really talented imo but got to the ufc way too early. Kazama is also talented but drew the short straw on road to ufc. I think both guys have ufc level skills but havent gotten the chance to properly display them yet. Armfield is your typical wrestler turned striker product from kill cliff. He wrestled at Missouri State for a few years & has refined his striking since going to mma. Armfields striking is clean. Really good boxing fundamentals. He subscribes to the henri hooft school of KISS. HIs striking is all basic and simple but, it is effective. Ironically, I think armfields best performance is one of his losses. He fought mateo vogel (potentially soon to be a ufc fighter himself) and dominated him for every second before making one mistake and getting his back taken. Vogel has insane bjj so not a bad loss but in that fight, armfield was killing him. He scored a 10-7 round 1 and it was looking like a finish in round 2 but then he got subbed. Grappling is the biggest hole in armfields game. He has a good wrestling base but struggles with the jiu jitsu aspect of grappling. Its not like hes clueless on the mat but he has a tendency to fall into submissions a lot. This is not good at all against kazama. Kazama is a bjj ace. He isnt very good anywhere else but his bjj is phenomenal. Kazama does his best work from his back, throwing lots of gnp and constantly attacking subs. Kazama doesnt just attack your usual RNC’s and the like, instead attempting things like hammerlocks an twisters. I doubt armfield has this level of understanding on the mat and will definitely struggle should kazama get him down. The issue for kazama is getting it there. Kazama is not a great wrestler or striker. He doesnt set up takedown attempts with strikes and also atrugges to take you down in the open. On the feet, I give a big advantage to armfield. He throws a good amount and cracks hard. Kazama has serviceable striking but he doesnt throw a lot & his chin is bad. His two ko losses have been absolutely brutal, especially his last one. No shame in losing to rinya but, that ko had his face tensing up after which means he got a bad concussion from that. His other loss was a brutal flying knee against a 2-2 guy. This is a really close fight since both guys have obvious strengths and weaknesses but I think I favor armfield to keep it standing and get the ko.
 

  Max vs Zombie  Max KO RD 3 
Gonna keep this one short and simple; max wins. If this fight happened like 6-7 years ago, this couldve been a legendary fight but now, this is just gonna be painful. Zombie is my favorite fighter of all time so to see him fight nowadays just causes me immense pain. HE really hasnt been the same since the aldo fight but these past few years he has really regressed badly. Ever since the ortega fight really. Getting worked on the feet by brian ortega is just suspect. Granted, he was hurt bad by those elbows but still he looked so slow and stiff out there. Even when he won against dan ige it wasnt the same zombie. I mean, when have we ever seen zombie come in with a wrestling heavy approach? He won clearly because he is a good grappler but it was sad to see him not trust his standup anymore. I wont even talk about the volk fight cuz that was just hard to watch. The point im trying to make with this rambling is zombie is a shell of himself now. Thats not to say max isnt on the decline either. Just that max is far less declined than zombie. Max can still compete at an elite level but you can see hes not the same either. However, max by domination. I lowkey hope he takes ti easy on zombie and wins a UD but i see him just killing zombie with output. 
Smith vs Spann II  SPann KO RD 1 
Theres a lot of weird fights on this card but this one definitely takes the cake. I dont get the angle here: are they trying to get smith a freebie? Are they trying to see if spann can still compete at the top? This fight just makes no sense because its a rematch, but the first fight wasnt close at all. Smith gave spann one of the most embarrassing beatdowns of his career. His jab absolutely ruined spanns whole ganeplan and had him hesitating on everything before getting cub n subbed. Even weirder, both guys are different fighters yet neither has improved (if that makes sense). Spann has gone 2-1 since then, with two highlight reels and a pretty quick loss over krylov. I dont think his skills have improved at all but as spann says, hes “finally training now” so I guess that makes a difference. Spann has always been a freak athlete. He is gigantic, super fast, very powerful, explosive, and has a good guillotine. Where he struggles is his fight iq and his chin. He doesnt know how to gameplan so every fight of his is a sloppy bar fight until he finds a finish or gets finished. This was very evident in the first fight with smith. As all he did was jab and low kick & it completely ruined spann. However, spann at least brings these qualities into the cage each time he fights. Smith on the other hand, has regressed badly since this fight. Smith is on a 2 fight losing streak and has looked a shell of himself. Of course, he was supposed to lose to these guys but my god they were ass whoopings. The ankalaev fight was just sanctioned murder. He broke smiths legs badly with kicks, and just made him look amateur. Quite literally all smith did that fight was survive. He didnt even look like he wanted to be in there. The walker fight, he still took a beating but that was just more strange. Walker still beat the living **** out of smith but weirdly wouldnt finish him. H just gave smith a sustained beating while smith sai he was attacking his family. Now, considering just two years ago he smashed spann, he should beat him in a rematch. However, some things to consider. First, smith took some insane damage. Nothing new to him but, hes not getting any younger and suffered two of the biggest beatdowns of his career, after already having a lengthy 15 year career where hes been finished 14 times. The other factor is how much does he really want this? Smith has left factoryx, he doesnt appear to want to fight anymore, he doesnt appear to try to win anymore, his striking looks bad, his cardio isnt good anymore, and hes also been doing a lot of work as a espn desk analyst. Hes got one foot out the door and clearly has lost his step. Its hard to be confident in spann anymore, but give me the guy whos athletic, younger, and actually wants this (at least i think lol). Spann got *****ed last time and was asking for his respect after smith won, so I imagine hes gonna try and make smith respect him this saturday. 

Chikadze vs Caceres  Giga DEC 
Even tho im not a fan of him, it is good to see giga back. Even if i dont like him, I cant lie his striking is fun to watch. His kickboxing is actually deadly. When he first came to the ufc, giga was very beatable but as he was staying active, he became more and more comfortable & was improving a ton. Once he got his confidence, giga became one of the more scary strikers in the division. His hands are super sharp but even scarier are his kicks. Of course, we have the patented giga kick; the body shot that he gets everyone with but, giga also throws a ton of leg kicks and head kicks. His best performance to me was watching him beat edson. I know edson is washed and not the same guy but to watch someone dismantle him & beat him at his own game was insanely impressive. I think that fight really speaks to the caliber of giga’s striking. It is rare to see someone go toe to toe with edson and win. Then the kattar fight happened. THis fight was a brutal beatdown. On secon rewatch, giga actually had a lot better moments than i originally remembered. Kattar still beat the living **** out of him, but giga actually landed a ton of shots and some of the striking engagements were pretty close. Kattar was able to win because of the elbows. Giga didnt see them coming and every time kattar landed one, it had a huge effect. Now, hes almost 3 years removed (2 years and 8 months) and wasted the rest of his prime on the sidelines. I am a little worried that hes gonna come back washed but at the same time, he hasnt been doing mma for a super long time so maybe he has made improvements. Hes certainly getting a good matchup for himself tho. Caceres is a journeyman but I mean that in the best way possible. Caceres has a very ugly record but he has fought a high level of competition. Hes fought just about every rising prospect since hes been in the ufc. Recently, he has been fighting scrubs and losing to the top 15 guys. Caceres has a very funky style. Theres really no way to categorize it, he just flows out there. He has a funky kickboxing style that you cant really prep for. For example, that crazy weird head kick he landed on erosa. Who expected him to do that? Caceres also has decent grappling but its not his main gameplan. The only time he really uses it is either when you engage first in grappling, or he get your back near the fence & uses it to tap you out. I dont see either happening in this fight, so hes gonn stand and trade with giga. Caceres is good at landing and will give giga some issues due to his weirdness but, giga is such a better striker than him. Im picking decision because caceres has a very good chin but honestly, i could see giga koing him. I think this is a really good matchup to make giga look like hes back. 
Nakamura vs Garcia  Nakamura KO RD 1
Yeah this is just gonna be a murder. Fernie has already shown us twice that hes not ufc level and now hes facing his best opponent yet. Rinya is one scary prospect, he was a U23 wrestling world champion & has looked phenomenal in mma. IN fact, hes hardly had to use his wrestling. Pretty much every fight hes had, he walks the opponent down and nukes them. When hes had to use his wrestling, he has obviously dominated. What rinya and a lot of the new japanese prospects do with their wrestling is they have an understanding of how to grapple as well. Meaning, they will use bjj or even wrestling moves to maintain control & open up spots for submissions/gnp. When rinya fought that indonesian can on rtu, he took him down and just totally dominated the guy. Really, rinya hasnt shown me a single thing wrong in his career yet. The only thing that is slightly concerning to me is his aggressiveness. Rinya has literally shown 0 respect to anyone hes fought recently. He walks them down just not giving a **** and is sleeping everyone badly. He hits like a mac truck and is super aggressive but, i worry what happens once he fights someone who knows how to strike back. Of course, I 1. Doubt this will happen for a while and 2. I imagine once he fights someone closer to his skill level, he will fight less aggressive. However, I just think this is worth pointing out. Do i think fernie will be able to do anything to him? No, but, it should be worth mentioning fernie has one good shot every first round. Look at his last three fights. EVery fght, he lands one good power shot that either drops or hrut his opponent early. It lands but he never capitalizes on it. He almost resigns to letting his opponent back in the fight if he hurts them. I could see him maybe rocking rinya early but, even if he does i dont expect him to follow up. Besides this, this will be a total wash. Fernie doesnt like to get hit and no way he ca match the pace or ferocity of rinya. If rinya fights smart and wrestles, fernie will get dominated there too. We’ve already seen him lose to a worse wrestler so i imagine rinya will dominate him. The only question in this fight is what method does rinya win by? Im going ko.
Blanchfield vs Santos  Blanchfield DEC 
I can’t believe the hype for this fight is paleing in comparison to the original booking; this fight is a banger. Its very rare we get two women fighting each other who happen to be elite. Im going to be honest, I didnt really watch tape for this fight tho so not a whole lot to say. I think erin wins by being a better grappler and actually forcing santos to fight on the feet. Santos is a lot lower volume and likes a technical battle. Erin doesnt respect any of her opponents striking and forces a brawl every fight. While she doesnt move her head very well, I think her footwork is super underrated. If you look closely, you can see shes actually moving out of the way of a lot of shots coming at her. It looks ugly because theres no head movement but, her defense is a lot better than it looks. The grappling style fo the two will alos make a difference. When on top, santos just rides out control. She doesnt throw a ton of strikes (or any effective strikes really) and instead tries to get on the back and attack rncs. Erin is just as mean on the ground as she is on the feet. I havent seen a girl with her level of grappling ever. HEr wrestling is a little overrated but her grappling is unreal. She throws tons of gnp and tries to hurt you in there. Her bjj is also phenomenal and she uses it to maintain position or attack a submission. My big worry for erin is the strength of santos. Santos is jaked and clearly a roid monster. Erin doesnt have the best wrestling so i do worry she could have trouble getting the fight down. I also worry what happens ocne she eats a bomb frmo santos; cuz santos hits very hard. Not super confident since i didnt watch tape but you know i love me some erin. 
Tafa vs Porter  Tafa Round 1 KO 
Another very odd one. I cant believe 1. Tafa isnt fighting in australia and 2. Is getting arguably a harder fight after laying an egg in his debut. Tafa’s debut was horrible but (imo) you could unironcially make an argument he beat usman. The very few minutes the fight was standing, it was all tafa. He rocked usman a few times and every punch he landed had an effect. Usman laid on him for like 13 minutes but tbf, he just laid on him and did no damage. Regardless of the outcome, this fight showed that tafa is still very green. He has no ground game at all and still needs to learn things like cage awareness and the like. That was my worry about tafa making his debut so early in the ufc; experience. Even watching his regional fights there were some things to nitpick. YEs, he was sparking these guys early but it still wasnt perfect. While he does come from a kickboxing background, you could see he still needs to learn some striking nuances. Also things like grappling, fight iq, he just needs a lot more cage experience in general. And so now hes fighting parker porter. I feel like porter is consistently overhyped by a lot of people. I know nobody thinks the guy is elite but a lot of people act like hes underrated or something. Hes gotten a few wins he shouldnt have but I mean look at them. He has wins over josh parisian, chase sherman, alan baudot, and braxton smith; 4 of the worst heavyweights of all time. I mean, can we even call the smith fight a win? That guy was among the worst excuses for a “fighter” ive ever seen. Parker only really won because the guy gasses himself out after 60 seconds and gave up. He beat parisian and sherman handedly but who doesnt. The worst part to me was the alan baudot fight. Alan baudot is indescribably bad. Not only could parker not get a finish, he actually lost a round to this bum. A lot of people are coutning on parker to wrestle. I mean sure, hes done it before and we see tafa cant grapple but, I wouldnt totally rely on it. Parker’s gameplan is never to wrestle straight away; he always starts out striking for a few minutes. I know he is a black belt and has looked in way better shape recently but his grappling really isnt that good. From a striking aspect this fight isnt close. I know I said tafa doesnt have the best striking despite being a kickboxer, its far superior to parkers. Parker puts out good volume but he cant actually strike. He puts his chin up all the time, doesnt hit hard, and is just really slow in there. Maybe I look like an idiot and parker eposes tafa again but im gonna ride with him here. A few other things to factor; there is a 12 year age difference here and tafa has already trained his brother for this camp when they fought, so he already knows the gameplan. 
 

So all the favorites. Nice!

Yeah I guess I am. Didn’t notice that. Don’t see many underdogs winning this week. I was contemplating porter and Kazama but not confident 

* Edited at 08.24.2023, 11:37 AM ET *

only dog I have is Kazama

Only Kino****a (Tapology pick dog), Errens and Kazama are worth putting any money on. Maybe Santos but I cant see it. 

tbh I don't know why Kino****a is a dog on tap. seems like a case of recency bias to me

* Edited at 08.24.2023, 12:29 PM ET *

recency bias and he does have ass grappling. but Kino****a does have a chin, good power and will try to be explosive and get back up. But he also has trained with Taira since his last fight so i hope he picks up some tricks. I like Kino****a hopefully he gets it done but its a risky pick

I feel pretty good about kino****a. Goff is not going to wrestle him and gets dropped bad every fight

Gonna give my prediction algo another go. Should be around 70% accuracy so we'll see. Would bump my current success rate up a bit if correct. So far around 69% correct over the last 5 weeks. 

See the picks and previous picks at: https://www.fightforecast.net/, all free because I'm just doing it for fun. 

These are all the tapology dogs it picked for this event: Jarno Errens, Na Liang & Toshiomi Kazama

Na Liang? interesting. it's not impossible, it's just that she only has a couple minutes to do it. thanks for doing this btw, it's fascinating

JJ Aldrich has hardly any finishes in her career and a submission record that looks Molly McCann'esque. Na Liang via armbar or straight up KO/TKO punches. One thing is for sure is that nobody bet Aldrich or put her in a parlay. Help you sleep easier.

Winner probably gets privilege to be topuria Vs Volkanovski backup fighter

More than likely Smith’s Retirement fight  

@Biba 

I’m a little confused at what I’m lookin at - the value bet column is what the software is saying constitutes ‘optimal value’?
If that is the case - didn’t it say last week good value was putting units on Andrea Lee & Chris Weidman? I’m trying to understand what its telling us.
Thanks man

Kino****a vs. Goff
Billy Goff, TKO, R1
Going with Goff but if he gets slept here I will not be surprised.

Liang vs. Aldrich
JJ Aldrich, TKO, R2
They threw you a bone JJ. If you can't win, then IDK *** anymore.

@Rah123 

you encourage people to lose their penny. how bad

@AyyLmaonnaise 

how about your beloved korean choi getting battered  by a dutchboy? dont you recommend it?

so many in here will cry for picking choi

Dear Zion. You are right. It's better not to follow my picks.

We are truly blessed to have such intelligent minds like yourself who truly understand MMA here to guide us.

We are so lucky. You are incredibly intelligent. 

You are picking Jarno Errins. Just like JR. How can I Argue against two of the great minds of Tapology. 

I will now switch my pick and bet to Jarno Errins. 

Positivity. 

* Edited at 08.24.2023, 5:11 PM ET *